The FX Revolution Starts At Zero ~ forex trading profitable business
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Sabtu, 14 Mei 2016
Selasa, 10 Mei 2016
Economic Calendar ~ forex trading tax irs
Earlier, actually in the last post i wrote about importance of knowing what economic data that affect Forex market will be relased and when. This information alone can save you a lot of pain, because, after some key economic indicators are relased, prices in just few minutes can go +200 pips up, and then out of sudden 300 pips down.
This mainly affects day traders or scalpers, and the EURUSD currency pair. I belive there are many ways you can deal with market moving indicators, but i will list two of my ideas i have came up with:
- Few minutes before economic data announcement hedge your position.
- Not all Forex brokers allows to hedge, if yours not, then you can close your position before data release and open a new one after market will "calm down".
More over important economic data dictates trend of the market, so you can use it for simple Forex fundamental analysis.
But the most important question here is, where do i get this data and how will i know which is important and which is not? My all time favourite source for economic data is bloomber economic calendar, which you can find here: ECalendar.
I like this calendar because, it places icon next to particular event, which tells me how important this event is, so i do not have to make my own research on every single event.
From my experience i can tell you that, two events responsible for the biggest moves are: Employment situation and FOMC meeting.
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Jumat, 15 April 2016
Amero Revolution ~ forex trading tax laws uk
Recently i was watching movie Zeitgeist. Pretty cool movie if you havent seen it i advice you to do it. It consists of three parts first is about Christianity and Jesus, second amd third are about America, power and money which interests most i belive.
Anyway, in a part three there is mentioned new currency Amero. Which will be new currency for North America (Canada, USA, Mexico). So it seems that end for our favourite currency pair is neer, and the question is not: will it happen? will USD will be replaced with Amero? but rather when will it happen? From my informations it will be around 2010, but really it is hard to tell.
The best way to replace USD is to make it weaker and weaker which is happening and we can see it on our Forex charts. So maybe it is a good idea to take long term position against dollar?
This is not important. What is important is this. How will new currency affect Forex market? In my opinion not much. It will be a currency as any other currency on Forex, the only problem will be a fact that there will be no history for it.
This means no backtesting, and even no "space" for technical analysis. However these will be problems only for long term traders or swing traders. I guess scalpers will be okay with this because they do not need a lot of data, but i do not know i am not a scalper.
However, what concerns me most is that we will loose three currencies and gain only one new, which happen further again because of Asian union which is getting ready to introduce asian currency (asio?).
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Rabu, 13 April 2016
Foreign banks increase exposure in gilts forex ~ turbotax forex trading
With the ongoing volatility in domestic interest rates as well as in the Sensex movement, foreign banks, whose numbers may be small, have suddenly emerged as the leading players in both the segments - gilts and forex - in the money market. In the first week of the current month, foreign banks have bought g-secs worth nearly Rs 1,000 crore on a daily basis. This accounts for nearly 40% of the total daily g-secs deals , which is much higher than the earlier period.
According to Clearing Corporation of India Ltd (CCIL), the share of foreign banks in total g-secs purchases was only 28% in May. In April, their share was still lower at 24%.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) permits foreign banks to classify government securities purchased under the reverse repo auction as part of the statutory liquidity requirements (SLR) exposure of the bank. However, given the 50 basis points rise in reverse repo rates in the last six months, purchase of securities through reverse repo auction has proved to be a costlier route. As a result, foreign banks prefer outright purchase of g-sec through the secondary market.
Further, given the prevailing high volatility in the domestic equity markets, many foreign banks have pared their exposure in equities and increased that in the government securities.
Read more here.
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Kamis, 31 Maret 2016
PVSRA Price Volume S R Analysis ~ forex trading is a good business
PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)
Introduction to PVSRA
So, let us begin with an overview of PVSRA. In time, more will be transcribed here, but let this suffice for now. I would like to break this up and say something brief about each part. Okay?
Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period. But price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. The MMs are also "SM", and they tend to do the other SMs "one better"! This means that after the MMs fill the SM/DM orders, they might move price a bit further in an attempt to stop out some of those SM executed orders and sucker in more DM; both giving liquidity for the MMs to add to their own SM side position. Yes, the MMs are bastards. But the point is that could leave price not "nicely" above or below a SR anymore, yet more consolidation can occur.
Volume - Increases in activity denote increase in interest. But, is it long or short interest? Where is price in the bigger picture when this is happening? Is it at relative highs, or lows in the overall price action? And if a high volume bar is for a candle which you can examine by going to lower TF charts, you might see where in the spread of that candle the most volume occurred, high or low! Using volume is about taking note of relative increases in volume and what price is doing at the same time. Are the better volumes favoring the lower or the higher prices, as the MMs waffle price up and down? And do the volumes get particularly notable when the MMs take price above or below key SR?
S&R - Read all about S&R at "Baby Pips.com". What I want you to realize here is that the whole, half and quarter numbered price levels (hereinafter referred to as "Levels") are the most important SR of all in this market! Not because price stops, pauses, proceeds or reverses there, but because it is above or below these levels that important consolidation (MMs filling SM orders) takes place. Once SM long orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at higher prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price higher, eventually. Once SM short orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at lower prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price lower, eventually.
PVSRA - If we can spot consolidations above/below key SR, examine the overall price action on various TF charts, and take note of where the notable increases in volume have most recently occurred (did volume favor relative highs or lows), then we can build a consensus about what kind of orders the MMs have most recently been filling; buying to open longs or close shorts, or selling to open shorts or close longs. And we can get a better idea if things will next become bullish or bearish. And once PA confirms our bullish or bearish PVSRA results, by recognizing the importance of Levels we can look beyond current PA in the direction it is going and look to historic PA S&R (consolidation around key Levels) to come up with candidates for where the price might be headed. And bull or bear swings typically run in terms of 100+, 150+, 200+ pips, .....etc. And now you know why.
Okay. Now, if this is your first introduction to PVSRA, and having just read the above, you are likely scratching your head and still confused. That is normal. I will tell you a secret about the market and why you have a right to be confused. The secret is this. The market cannot be defined by mathematics nor by immutable logic. This is why the most advanced mathematicians over a century have never even come close to cracking the market. It cannot be done. Something else, other than math and immutable logic is the fundamental operand in the market. Have you ever watched a child attempt a jigsaw puzzle for the first time? And watched as that child grew and attempted more of them, and more complex ones? What is at work in the market I will elaborate on later, but for now trust me in this. We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
Introduction to How the Market Really Works
Does anybody remember the "lil Abner" cartoons in the Sunday papers? Let me draw for you a mental picture of how the market really works.....
Imagine Daddy Yokum ferociously racing a buckboard wagon up and down the steep inclines and declines in the rough, rocky mountain road that has sharp turns and a sheer cliff on one side. The wagon wheels are spewing rocks off the side of the cliff! Even Daddy Yokums shotgun is going off due to the jolting of the buckboard! Daddy Yokum has a demented look on his face, but he is smiling! The horse has a wild look in its eyes and is frothing at the mouth. There are two passengers being tossed around in the back of the buckboard, terror stricken! Now, lets pan back from this cartoon picture and place the labels needed. On the side of the wagon is the sign "Market Pricing". The demented, smiling Daddy Yokum, is the Market Maker. The passengers being tossed around are the buyers and sellers.
.....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs).
MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves!
The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market". While it serves the world of commerce, they run it to make profits. And they opened the market up to foster prolific currency trading by others for the sole purpose of making more profits. They move prices up and down to "create liquidity" to fill the orders of SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money), for the commissions they make by filling the orders. When they have some orders above the current price and some below the current price, who do you think determines the sequence of direction and distance the price is going to move so these orders can be filled? And always - since they know how they are going to move price next - they take positions themselves to make additional profits.
They do this by:
1. Manipulating price to sucker into the market DM that is taking the wrong side position.
2. Manipulating price to sucker into the market SM that is taking the right side position, but too soon, and later manipulating price to hit their stops.
They have total control of pricing, and by these actions they effectively "steal" from others the money to fill their own "right side" positions before moving the price to the next area they have decided on for filling orders, and for taking profit on their positions built beforehand. Dont get me wrong. I do not object to the market volatility these thieving Robber Banks create. We need it. But we also need to understand what these people are like, the cloth they are cut from. They are crooks, and we have to be extra careful about trading in the market they operate. On some special days you can see them in their true colors. We should witness it. Take note of it. Speak of it. And remember it!
So, it makes sense that we must Cautiously Ride the Coattails of the Crooks Operating this Market!
The PVSRA Template(s) and Indicators
At the bottom of Post #1 you will find the latest available zip file containing the sample template and supporting indicators for both black and white charts. Download the zip file. Extract it to yield the two folders for black and white charts which contain the files for the indicators and templates. Paste the indicator files into the MT4/MQL4/Indicators folder. Be sure the indicators go into the MQL4/Indicators folder. Access this folder from the opened MT4 platform by clicking on File/Open Data Folder/MQL4/Indicators. If your operating system is Windows 7 or 8 and you have difficulty with the indicators/templates, right click on MT4 icon -> properties -> compatibility win xp sp3. Paste the template files into the MT4/Templates folder. Restart your MT4 application.
Warning! Do Your Homework! - For information on the use of indicator basic features, definitions and changes from previous versions, read the User Notes at the top of the code of each indicator. The User Notes are there to instruct, inform and avoid having to repeatedly answer the same questions from "newbies". Therefore, be hereby advised! Read the User Notes and experiment with the External Inputs of these indicators instead of asking questions! You can read the User Notes after the indicators are installed into MT4. In the main MT4 window there is a yellow icon representing a manual. Click on it to open the MetaEditor, where you will find a list called the Navigator that contains a file called Indicators wherein you will find our indicators. Double click on any of our indicators in that list and the code for it will appear in the MetaEditor window. You will find the User Notes at the top of the code. A brief summary follows.
#1 Trade Levels - This indicator replaces the need to display the MT4 build-in trade level lines, which clutter the chart and cannot be customized. Our indicator displays trade entry points and levels, the level for the average of all EPs (permits variable sizes), and the levels of your TP and SL. Lines are color coded, include labels (including a Profit/Loss label), and make for a cleaner chart while providing much better information to help you manage your trade.
#2 Access Panel - This indicator gives you access to a number of charting features, including a Clock, special Bid and Ask lines, the display of Levels, "Natural" Fibos, time zone adjustable Pivots, Range H/L marks for the day and week, special vertical day Separators and vLines that mark the start-end of important markets during the day. Take note that some of the features mentioned here you will find turned "Off" on the sample templates. You will have to use the External Inputs provided to turn them "On. This indicator has many External Inputs for customizing. Daylight Savings Time considerations are fully automatic. A proper chart display is not dependent on live data feed. However, this indicator has a critical setup procedure users must follow, so read the User Notes!
#3 FFCAL Panel - This indicator lists up to four coming events that can affect market volatility, using prioritizing code for best assurance of "early warning."
#4 Trend Suite - This indicator provides a variety of ways you can display a moving average line: a dot filled band, a simple line or multiple lines, and a solid colored configuration. By default, this is set to draw a 50 EMA, a good choice replacing the need to display more than one moving average line.
#5 Candles Suite - This indicator draws PVA (Price-Volume Analysis) bars, candlesticks and candle bodies, as well as standard bars, candlesticks and Heiken-Ashi candles. An alert option signals when a "Climax" PVA situation exists.
#6 Volumes Suite - This indicator draws a PVA (Price-Volume Analysis) volumes histogram or a standard volumes histogram in the first chart subwindow. An alert option signals when a "Climax" PVA situation exists.
Acknowledgements - I wish to express my sincere appreciation of the following individuals whose efforts make our indicators the superlative indicators that they are. We owe a debt of gratitude to them for their work:
"caveman" - for his generous contribution to TzPivots coding back in the early days of the THV thread, and which has been carried forward since.
"pips4life" - for his excellent Clock which is the basis for our Clock, and for controlling our market vLines and TzPivots thru Daylight Savings Time shifts.
"qFish" - for substantial and critical code in our Trade Levels indicator, Chart Scale code in our Trend/Candles/Volumes Suite indicators and work on FFCal.
"deVries" - for recoding the handling of files in our FFCal indicator so it would run properly on MT4 Build 600+.
"atstrader" - for a feature added to FFCal, and for recent additional modification of the file handling code.
Sample Templates - The sample templates (for both black and white charts) are just a start. Many different templates can be created by changing the External Inputs of the indicators and re-saving with a different name. This is the recommended way to customize for yourself. Do not try to customize any chart but the sample templates provided. You can run into serious problems you are not aware of due to the complexities involved in how the order of our indicators affect the proper displays of the others, and in how certain MT4 chart properties are set! .
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
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Selasa, 29 Maret 2016
Standard Deviation Channel ~ forex trading tax in usa
I recently read article about, about standard deviation channel, (which as you may already know is one of my favorite indicators), and I was shocked, although author of this article explained what standard deviation channel is in mathematics but it had very little to do with Forex or any other financial market. Furthermore, I read other articles about standard deviation channels and what I found out is that they all were giving useless information to readers, so here is the right way to use standard deviation channel.
First of all, authors suggest that, when price will reach upper line, it is time to take SHORT position and vice versa, when price will reach lower line you should take LONG position because market is oversold.
This is true only if market is trending. It is quite safe to treat then lower line as support line and upper line as resistance line, and more over (depending on your standard deviation channel settings) 95% of price movement will happen between this two lines, as long as market is trending. The obvious question here is how to tell if Forex is trending, but this question is beyond the scope of this article, at least for now J.
What I like about standard deviation is that it allows to easily determine trend, you just need to draw channel over the selected period of time and that’s it, you have detected trend. However to use this indicator efficiently you need some experience, ideally you should see channel on the chart before you draw any lines on it. If you don’t see it, then do not worry it is all about experience.
How to use correctly Standard Deviation Channel
If market is in uptrend, you should take ONLY long positions, when price will reach lower line. Never take SHORT position in uptrend when the price will reach upper line, that do NOT mean that market is overbought, in uptrend price can easily go waaay over upper line and hit STOP LOSS, of trader who was stupid enough to take SHORT position in bull market.
Obviously, the opposite goes for market in downtrend, do not take long positions on lower line, NEVER.
Most importantly, this indicator is called standard deviation channel and you should use it only with CHANNELS not with any random piece of chart, below is the stock market chart with two correctly drawn channels.
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